Perspectives on the Future of Land Surface Models and the Challenges of Representing Complex Terrestrial Systems

被引:341
作者
Fisher, Rosie A. [1 ,2 ]
Koven, Charles D. [3 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] Ctr Europeen Rech & Format Avancee Calcul Sci, Toulouse, France
[3] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
PLANT FUNCTIONAL TYPES; ECOSYSTEM DEMOGRAPHY MODEL; FOREST ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS; MULTIPLE DATA STREAMS; EARTH SYSTEM; CARBON-CYCLE; VEGETATION DYNAMICS; STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; SOIL CARBON; CLIMATE PROJECTIONS;
D O I
10.1029/2018MS001453
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Land surface models (LSMs) are a vital tool for understanding, projecting, and predicting the dynamics of the land surface and its role within the Earth system, under global change. Driven by the need to address a set of key questions, LSMs have grown in complexity from simplified representations of land surface biophysics to encompass a broad set of interrelated processes spanning the disciplines of biophysics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, ecosystem ecology, community ecology, human management, and societal impacts. This vast scope and complexity, while warranted by the problems LSMs are designed to solve, has led to enormous challenges in understanding and attributing differences between LSM predictions. Meanwhile, the wide range of spatial scales that govern land surface heterogeneity, and the broad spectrum of timescales in land surface dynamics, create challenges in tractably representing processes in LSMs. We identify three "grand challenges" in the development and use of LSMs, based around these issues: managing process complexity, representing land surface heterogeneity, and understanding parametric dynamics across the broad set of problems asked of LSMs in a changing world. In this review, we discuss progress that has been made, as well as promising directions forward, for each of these challenges.
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页数:24
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