"Oil above Water": Economic Interdependence and Third-party Intervention

被引：30

作者：

Bove, Vincenzo ^{[1
]}

Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede ^{[2
]}

Sekeris, Petros G. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Warwick, Dept Polit & Int Studies, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[2] Univ Essex, Dept Govt, Colchester, Essex, England

[3] Univ Portsmouth, Dept Econ & Finance, Portsmouth, Hants, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION | 2016年 / 60卷 / 07期

基金：

欧洲研究理事会;

关键词：

intrastate conflict; third-party intervention; CIVIL-WAR DURATION; NATURAL-RESOURCES; CONFLICT; OPEC; REBELLION; OLIGOPOLY; SIDES;

D O I：

10.1177/0022002714567952

中图分类号：

D81 [国际关系];

学科分类号：

030207 ;

摘要：

We explore economic incentives for third parties to intervene in ongoing internal wars. We develop a three-party model of the decision to intervene in conflict that highlights the role of the economic benefits accruing from the intervention and the potential costs. We present novel empirical results on the role of oil in motivating third-party military intervention. We find that the likelihood of a third-party intervention increases when (a) the country at war has large reserves of oil, (b) the relative competition in the sector is limited, and (c) the potential intervener has a higher demand for oil.

引用

页码：1251 / 1277

页数：27

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