BPASS predictions for binary black hole mergers

Using the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis code, BPASS, we have calculated the rates, time-scales and mass distributions for binary black hole (BH) mergers as a function of metallicity. We consider these in the context of the recently reported first Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) event detection. We find that the event has a very low probability of arising from a stellar population with initial metallicity mass fraction above Z=0.010 (Z greater than or similar to 0.5Z(circle dot)). Binary BH merger events with the reported masses are most likely in populations below 0.008 (Z less than or similar to 0.4Z(circle dot)). Events of this kind can occur at all stellar population ages from 3 Myr up to the age of the Universe, but constitute only 0.1-0.4 per cent of binary BH mergers between metallicities of Z = 0.001 and 0.008. However at metallicity Z = 10(-4), 26 per cent of binary BH mergers would be expected to have the reported masses. At this metallicity, the progenitor merger times can be close to approximate to 10 Gyr and rotationally mixed stars evolving through quasi-homogeneous evolution, due to mass transfer in a binary, dominate the rate. The masses inferred for the BHs in the binary progenitor of GW 150914 are amongst the most massive expected at anything but the lowest metallicities in our models. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the electromagnetic follow-up of future LIGO event detections.