Understanding Unreported Cases in the COVID-19 Epidemic Outbreak in Wuhan, China, and the Importance of Major Public Health Interventions

被引：147

作者：

Liu, Zhihua ^{[1
]}

Magal, Pierre ^{[2
,3
]}

Seydi, Ousmane ^{[4
]}

Webb, Glenn ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Bordeaux, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France

[3] CNRS, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France

[4] Ecole Polytech Thies, Dept Tronc Commun, Thies 21001, Senegal

[5] Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Math, Nashville, TN 37212 USA

来源：

BIOLOGY-BASEL | 2020年 / 9卷 / 03期

关键词：

corona virus; reported and unreported cases; isolation; quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model; MODELS;

D O I：

10.3390/biology9030050

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We develop a mathematical model to provide epidemic predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China. We use reported case data up to 31 January 2020 from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to parameterize the model. From the parameterized model, we identify the number of unreported cases. We then use the model to project the epidemic forward with varying levels of public health interventions. The model predictions emphasize the importance of major public health interventions in controlling COVID-19 epidemics.

引用

页数：12

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