Prognostic Simulation of Alpine Ecosystems in View of Global Climate Change

被引：1

作者：

Kolomyts, E. G. ^{[1
]}

Sharaya, L. S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Ecol Volga Basin, Tolyatti 445003, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY | 2012年 / 43卷 / 01期

关键词：

alpine ecosystems; global climate warming; empirical-statistical simulation; prediction; mapping; GISS MODELE;

D O I：

10.1134/S1067413612010079

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Experience in predicting the state of alpine ecosystems on the basis of empirical-statistical simulation is described using the example of the Central Caucasus. Two types of analytical and cartographic prognostic models, chorometric and chronometric, are presented. They are used to obtain probabilistic estimates of alpine meadows and forests in the vicinity of Mount Elbrus in view of the forthcoming global climate warming for the period until the year 2100 (by means of GISS Model E for climate prediction).

引用

页码：1 / 12

页数：12

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