Modeling the potential economic benefits of an oral SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during an outbreak of COVID-19

Background Given patient preferences, the choice of delivery modality for vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly impact both health and economic consequences of an outbreak of COVID-19. This study models the projected health and economic impact of an oral COVID-19 vaccine in the United States during an outbreak occurring between December 1, 2021 and February 16, 2022. Methods A cost-of-illness economic decision analysis model is utilized to assess both the health and economic impact of an oral vaccine delivery platform compared with the status quo deployment of existing intramuscular vaccines against COVID-19. Health impact is assessed in terms of predicted cases, deaths, hospitalization days, intensive care unit admission days, and mechanical ventilation days averted. Health system economic impact is assessed based on the cost-of-illness averted derived from the average daily costs of medical care, stratified by severity. Productivity loss due to premature death is estimated based on regulatory analysis guidelines proposed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Results Based upon preference data, we estimate that the availability of an oral COVID-19 vaccine would increase vaccine uptake from 214 million people to 232 million people. This higher vaccination rate was estimated to result in 2,497,087 fewer infections, 25,709 fewer deaths, 1,365,497 fewer hospitalization days, 186,714 fewer Intensive Care Unit (ICU) days, and 80,814 fewer patient days requiring mechanical ventilation (MV) compared with the status quo. From a health systems perspective, this translates into $3.3 billion in health sector costs averted. An additional $139-$450 billion could have been averted in productivity loss due to a reduction in premature deaths. Conclusions Vaccine delivery modalities that are aligned with patient preferences have the ability to increase vaccination uptake and reduce both the health and economic impact of an outbreak of COVID-19. We estimate that the total economic impact of productivity loss and health systems cost-of-illness averted from an oral vaccine could range from 0.6%-2.9% of 2021 U.S, Gross Domestic Product (GDP).