Influence of infectious disease seasonality on the performance of the outbreak detection algorithm in the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System

被引:6
作者
Wang, Ruiping [1 ,2 ]
Jiang, Yonggen [2 ]
Guo, Xiaoqin [2 ]
Wu, Yiling [2 ]
Zhao, Genming [1 ]
机构
[1] Fudan Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, 130 Dong An Rd, Shanghai 200032 86, Peoples R China
[2] Songjiang Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shanghai, Peoples R China
关键词
Moving percentile method; optimized early alert threshold; seasonality; CIDARS; infectious disease; epidemic; SURVEILLANCE;
D O I
10.1177/0300060517718770
中图分类号
R-3 [医学研究方法]; R3 [基础医学];
学科分类号
1001 ;
摘要
Objective The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention developed the China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System (CIDARS) in 2008. The CIDARS can detect outbreak signals in a timely manner but generates many false-positive signals, especially for diseases with seasonality. We assessed the influence of seasonality on infectious disease outbreak detection performance. Methods Chickenpox surveillance data in Songjiang District, Shanghai were used. The optimized early alert thresholds for chickenpox were selected according to three algorithm evaluation indexes: sensitivity (Se), false alarm rate (FAR), and time to detection (TTD). Performance of selected proper thresholds was assessed by data external to the study period. Results The optimized early alert threshold for chickenpox during the epidemic season was the percentile P65, which demonstrated an Se of 93.33%, FAR of 0%, and TTD of 0 days. The optimized early alert threshold in the nonepidemic season was P50, demonstrating an Se of 100%, FAR of 18.94%, and TTD was 2.5 days. The performance evaluation demonstrated that the use of an optimized threshold adjusted for seasonality could reduce the FAR and shorten the TTD. Conclusions Selection of optimized early alert thresholds based on local infectious disease seasonality could improve the performance of the CIDARS.
引用
收藏
页码:98 / 106
页数:9
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