Variation trends and attribution analysis of lakes in the Qiangtang Plateau, the Endorheic Basin of the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the area with most high-altitude lakes in the world, of which most are in the Qiangtang Plateau (QP), the endorheic basin of the TP. Since the 1990s, abundant studies have reported the accelerated expansion of lakes in the QP. However, the dominant factors affecting lakes expansion or shrinkage are still controversial. Here we extract six periods of 300 lakes according to the satellite image. It indicates that 90% of the lakes in the QP were expanding, mainly located in the middle of the plateau; 10% of the lakes tended to shrink, mainly located in the areas surrounding the plateau and near the Tanggula Mountain and Nyainqentanglha Mountain, with an altitude over 4500 m. Meanwhile, we explored the influence factors for lake area changes by analyzing the variations in precipitation and glacier. Seven different driving models leading to the lake changes are proposed. Lake expansion was mainly caused by the increase of precipitation and glacier melting, while the causes of lake shrinkage are quite different, such as the change of precipitation and evaporation, the geological structure of lake outlet, the increase of outflow caused by the more transformation of lake water from solid to liquid, etc. This study can provide some support for plateau grassland protection and ice lake outburst prevention.