Naturalizing the freezeup regimes of regulated rivers and exploring implications to spring ice-jam flooding

Naturalization of the flow hydrograph and ice regime is a key step in assessment of ecological and socioeconomic impacts of regulation across large portions of Europe, Asia and North America, where many rivers are dammed for hydropower generation. Building on previous naturalization of early-freshet flows that influence the nature of breakup and jamming events, novel methodology is developed to estimate natural freezeup flows and thence determine associated water levels, also known to influence subsequent breakup events. Using reservoir inflows, the new methodology is applied to the lower portion of the regulated Peace River, Canada, which forms the northern boundary of the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD), a Ramsar wetland of international importance that partially depends on spring ice-jam flooding for recharge of its high-elevation, or "perched" basins. The PAD provides habitat for numerous aquatic, terrestrial and avian species and is vital to the maintenance of indigenous culture and lifeways. Naturalized freezeup levels in the lower Peace River are shown to be nearly always lower than corresponding regulated values, with the difference averaging similar to 1.6 m. Consistent with known physics of river ice breakup processes, the present results suggest that ice-jam flood frequency would likely have been greater under natural conditions. Though potentially adverse from the ecological standpoint, reduction of spring ice-jam flooding can benefit riverside communities. Implications of the present results to and comparison with, other Canadian and international rivers are discussed.