The natural history of medically managed acute type B aortic dissection

Objective: Although medical management of acute uncomplicated type B aortic dissection remains the standard of care, contemporary data regarding the natural history of medically treated patients are sparse. The goal of this study was to evaluate the natural history of patients with acute type B aortic dissection who were initially managed with medical therapy alone. Methods: All patients with acute type B aortic dissection who were initially managed medically between March 1999 and March 2011 were included. Failure of medical therapy was defined as any death or aorta-related intervention. Early failure occurred within 15 days of presentation. Predictors of long-term outcomes were determined using backward stepwise regression. Results: A total of 298 patients with medically managed acute type B dissections were identified. The cohort had an average age of 65.9 years at presentation and was 61.7% male. There were 174 (58.4%) failures including 119 deaths and 87 interventions (24 endovascular, 63 open); 57 (66%) interventions were performed for aneurysmal degeneration. There were 37 (12%) early failures including 14 deaths and 25 interventions (10 endovascular, 15 open). Aneurysmal degeneration was the indication for intervention in six patients (24%). Mean follow-up was 4.2 years (range, 0.1-14.7 years). Kaplan-Meier estimate demonstrated that freedom from intervention was 77.3% +/- 2.4% at 3 years and 74.2% +/- 2.5% at 6 years. There were no predictors of freedom from intervention. Kaplan-Meier estimate demonstrated that the intervention-free survival was 55.0% +/- 3.0% at 3 years and 41.0% +/- 3.2% at 6 years. End-stage renal disease was predictive of failure of medical treatment (hazard ratio, 2.60; confidence interval, 1.19-5.66; P = .02), and age >70 years was protective against failure (hazard ratio, 0.97; confidence interval, 0.95-0.98; P < .01). Kaplan-Meier estimate demonstrated that survival after 6 years was higher in patients who underwent interventions (76% vs 58%; P = .018). Conclusions: The majority of patients with acute type B dissection will fail medical therapy over time as evidenced by a 6-year intervention-free survival of 41%. Patients who underwent any aortic intervention had a significant survival advantage over those who were treated with medical management alone. Further study is necessary to determine who will benefit most from early intervention.