Evaluating the suitability of coupled biophysical models for fishery management

The potential role of coupled biophysical models in enhancing the conservation, management, and recovery of fish stocks is assessed, with emphasis on anchovy, cod, herring, and sprat in European waters. The assessment indicates that coupled biophysical models are currently capable of simulating transport patterns, along with temperature and prey fields within marine ecosystems; they therefore provide insight into the variability of early-life-stage dynamics and connectivity within stocks. Moreover, the influence of environmental variability on potential recruitment success may be discerned from model hindcasts. Based on case studies, biophysical modelling results are shown to be capable of shedding light on whether stock management frameworks need re-evaluation. Hence, key modelling products were identified that will contribute to the development of viable stock recovery plans and management strategies. The study also suggests that approaches combining observation, process knowledge, and numerical modelling could be a promising way forward in understanding and simulating the dynamics of marine fish populations.