Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China

被引：237

作者：

Du, Zhanwei ^{[1
]}

Wang, Lin ^{[3
]}

Cauchemez, Simon ^{[3
]}

Xu, Xiaoke ^{[4
]}

Wang, Xianwen ^{[5
]}

Cowling, Benjamin J. ^{[6
]}

Meyers, Lauren Ancel ^{[2
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Texas Austin, Dept Integrat Biol, 2415 Speedway,Stop C0930, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[2] Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[3] Inst Pasteur, Paris, France

[4] Dalian Minzu Univ, Dalian, Peoples R China

[5] Dalian Univ Technol, Dalian, Peoples R China

[6] Univ Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[7] Santa Fe Inst, Santa Fe, NM 87501 USA

来源：

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2020年 / 26卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

D O I：

10.3201/eid2605.200146

中图分类号：

R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];

学科分类号：

100102 ;

摘要：

On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas.

引用

页码：1049 / 1052

页数：4

共 9 条

[1]

[Anonymous], WUH MUN HLTH COMM BR

[2] A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster [J].

Chan, Jasper Fuk-Woo ;

Yuan, Shuofeng ;

Kok, Kin-Hang ;

To, Kelvin Kai-Wang ;

Chu, Hin ;

Yang, Jin ;

Xing, Fanfan ;

Liu, Jieling ;

Yip, Cyril Chik-Yan ;

Poon, Rosana Wing-Shan ;

Tsoi, Hoi-Wah ;

Lo, Simon Kam-Fai ;

Chan, Kwok-Hung ;

Poon, Vincent Kwok-Man ;

Chan, Wan-Mui ;

Ip, Jonathan Daniel ;

Cai, Jian-Piao ;

Cheng, Vincent Chi-Chung ;

Chen, Honglin ;

Hui, Christopher Kim-Ming ;

Yuen, Kwok-Yung .

LANCET, 2020, 395 (10223) :514-523

[3]

Enserink M, 2013, SCIENCE, V339, P1264, DOI 10.1126/science.339.6125.1266

[4]

Ferguson N.M., 2020, 2 IMP COLL LOND

[5] Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia [J].

Li, Qun ;

Guan, Xuhua ;

Wu, Peng ;

Wang, Xiaoye ;

Zhou, Lei ;

Tong, Yeqing ;

Ren, Ruiqi ;

Leung, Kathy S. M. ;

Lau, Eric H. Y. ;

Wong, Jessica Y. ;

Xing, Xuesen ;

Xiang, Nijuan ;

Wu, Yang ;

Li, Chao ;

Chen, Qi ;

Li, Dan ;

Liu, Tian ;

Zhao, Jing ;

Liu, Man ;

Tu, Wenxiao ;

Chen, Chuding ;

Jin, Lianmei ;

Yang, Rui ;

Wang, Qi ;

Zhou, Suhua ;

Wang, Rui ;

Liu, Hui ;

Luo, Yinbo ;

Liu, Yuan ;

Shao, Ge ;

Li, Huan ;

Tao, Zhongfa ;

Yang, Yang ;

Deng, Zhiqiang ;

Liu, Boxi ;

Ma, Zhitao ;

Zhang, Yanping ;

Shi, Guoqing ;

Lam, Tommy T. Y. ;

Wu, Joseph T. ;

Gao, George F. ;

Cowling, Benjamin J. ;

Yang, Bo ;

Leung, Gabriel M. ;

Feng, Zijian .

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2020, 382 (13) :1199-1207

[6]

MOBS Lab, 2019, 2019 NCOV

[7] Asymptomatic SARS coronavirus infection among healthcare workers, Singapore [J].

Wilder-Smith, A ;

Teleman, MD ;

Heng, BH ;

Earnest, A ;

Ling, AE ;

Leo, YS .

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2005, 11 (07) :1142-1145

[8]

World Health Organization, 2020, DIS OUTBR NEWS NOV C

[9]

Wuhan Municipal Health Commission, B PNEUM ASS NEW COR

← 1 →