Modeling household-level hurricane evacuation mode and destination type joint choice using data from multiple post-storm behavioral surveys

Since Hurricane Katrina, transit evacuation service has been seen to serve critical needs in affected cities and an increasing number of hurricanes have struck the east coast where more people rely on public transportation to evacuate. Thus, it is important to model mode choice in evacuation for a better estimation of evacuation transit demand. In this study, a joint mode and destination type choice model was estimated based on multiple post-storm behavioral surveys from the northeastern seaboard to the Gulf coast. A Nested Logit model specification was used to estimate this joint choice model. The estimated model showed a significant linkage between mode and destination type choice, which validated the choice of a nested structure for the model. Selected variables include both household and zonal characteristics, reflecting the attributes of alternatives (e.g., hotel price and occupancy), the characteristics of households (e.g., residential stability and community density), and the interactions between them (e.g., average accessibility to a destination type). The use of multiple-storm data allowed the use of some variables that have not been considered in the past because of few variations in their values in a single dataset. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight into the factors affecting mode and destination type choice of residents during hurricane evacuation.