Assessing bleeding risk in 4824 Asian patients with atrial fibrillation: The Beijing PLA Hospital Atrial Fibrillation Project

The risks of major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) are higher in Asian patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) compared to non-Asians. We aimed to investigate risk factors for bleeding, and validate the predictive value of available bleeding risk scores (mOBRI, HEMORR(2)HAGES, Shireman, HAS-BLED, ATRIA and ORBIT) in a large cohort of Chinese inpatients with AF. Using hospital electronic medical databases, we identified 4824 AF patients (mean age 67 years; 34.9% female) from January 1, 1995 to May 30, 2015, with median (interquartile) in-hospital days of 10 (7-16) days. On multivariate analysis, prior bleeds, vascular disease, anemia, prior stroke, and liver dysfunction were independent risk factors of major bleeding (all p < 0.05). C-statistics (95%CI) of the HAS-BLED score were 0.72 (0.65-0.79) for major bleeding events and 0.83 (0.75-0.91) for ICH (all p < 0.001). Compared to other risk scores, the HAS-BLED score was significantly better in predicting major bleeding events (Delong test, all P < 0.05, apart from mOBRI, HEMORR2HAGES) and ICH (all p < 0.05), and additionally, resulted in a net reclassification improvement (NRI) of 17.1-65.5% in predicting major bleeding events and 29.5-67.3% in predicting ICH (all p < 0.05). We conclude that the HAS-BLED score had the best predictive and discriminatory ability for major bleeding and ICH in an Asian/Chinese AF population.