Projected effects of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels on the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa

被引:31
作者
Gudoshava, Masilin [1 ,2 ]
Misiani, Herbert O. [2 ]
Segele, Zewdu T. [2 ]
Jain, Suman [3 ]
Ouma, Jully O. [2 ]
Otieno, George [2 ]
Anyah, Richard [4 ]
Indasi, Victor S. [5 ]
Endris, Hussen Seid [2 ]
Osima, Sarah [6 ]
Lennard, Christopher [7 ]
Zaroug, Modathir [8 ]
Mwangi, Emmah [9 ]
Nimusiima, Alex [10 ]
Kondowe, Alfred [6 ]
Ogwang, Bob [5 ,11 ]
Artan, Guleid [2 ]
Atheru, Zachary [2 ]
机构
[1] Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
[2] IGAD Climate Predict & Applicat Ctr, Nairobi, Kenya
[3] Univ Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia
[4] Univ Connecticut, Storrs, CT USA
[5] ACMAD, Niamey, Niger
[6] Tanzania Meteorol Agcy, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania
[7] Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Rondebosch, South Africa
[8] Nile Basin Initiat Secretariat, Entebbe, Uganda
[9] Kenya RedCross, Nairobi, Kenya
[10] Makerere Univ, Kampala, Uganda
[11] Uganda Natl Meteorol Author, Kampala, Uganda
基金
英国科研创新办公室;
关键词
CORDEX; global warming levels; rainfall onset; cessation; length of rainy season; greater horn of Africa; consecutive wet and dry days; MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION; EQUATORIAL EAST-AFRICA; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL; RAINY-SEASON; MONSOON ONSET; VARIABILITY; CESSATION; PRECIPITATION; SIMULATIONS; PREDICTION;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ab6b33
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
This study examines the effects of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming levels (GWLs) on intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa. The impacts are analysed based on the outputs of a 25-member regional multi-model ensemble from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment project. The regional climate models were driven by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Global Climate Models for historical and future (RCP8.5) periods. We analyse the three major seasons over the region, namely March-May, June-September, and October-December. Results indicate widespread robust changes in the mean intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs especially for the June-September and October-December seasons. The March-May season is projected to shift for both GWL scenarios with the season starting and ending early. During the June-September season, there is a robust indication of delayed onset, reduction in consecutive wet days and shortening of the length of rainy season over parts of the northern sector under 2 degrees C GWL. During the October-December season, the region is projected to have late-onset, delayed cessation, reduced consecutive wet days and a longer season over most of the equatorial region under the 2 degrees C GWL. These results indicate that it is crucial to limit the GWL to below 1.5 degrees C as the differences between the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C GWLs in some cases exacerbates changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics over the Greater Horn of Africa.
引用
收藏
页数:14
相关论文
共 67 条
[61]  
Stocker TF, 2014, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P1, DOI 10.1017/cbo9781107415324
[62]   Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: assessment of gridded observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation [J].
Sylla, M. B. ;
Giorgi, F. ;
Coppola, E. ;
Mariotti, L. .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2013, 33 (07) :1805-1817
[63]   AN OVERVIEW OF CMIP5 AND THE EXPERIMENT DESIGN [J].
Taylor, Karl E. ;
Stouffer, Ronald J. ;
Meehl, Gerald A. .
BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2012, 93 (04) :485-498
[64]   Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Extreme Events over Northern and Tropical Africa [J].
Vizy, Edward K. ;
Cook, Kerry H. .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2012, 25 (17) :5748-5767
[65]   'Eastern African Paradox' rainfall decline due to shorter not less intense Long Rains [J].
Wainwright, Caroline M. ;
Marsham, John H. ;
Keane, Richard J. ;
Rowell, David P. ;
Finney, Declan L. ;
Black, Emily ;
Allan, Richard P. .
NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE, 2019, 2 (1)
[66]   Madden-Julian Oscillation impacts on tropical African precipitation [J].
Zaitchik, Benjamin F. .
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2017, 184 :88-102
[67]   Asian summer monsoon onset in simulations and CMIP5 projections using four Chinese climate models [J].
Zou Liwei ;
Zhou Tianjun .
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2015, 32 (06) :794-806