Is the protected Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population in Gilbert Bay, Labrador, nearing a tipping point?

The Gilbert Bay Marine Protected Area (MPA), Labrador, was created in 2005 to protect a resident, locally adapted population of Atlantic cod and its habitat. Twenty years of monitoring has shown a 90% decline in this bay-cod population since the creation of the MPA. The decline of large commercial-sized cod in the bay was accompanied with increases in the abundance of other fish species, including rock cod (Gadus macrocephalus ogac), sculpin (Myoxocephlalus scorpius), and winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus), suggesting loss of strong top-down community control. These changes suggest a positive feedback mechanism leading to a fish community tipping point, which could severely impact the recovery potential of the protected Atlantic cod population in the MPA. We suggest that managers should be including this possibility in their management decisions for the Gilbert Bay MPA.