The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus

被引：76

作者：

Deser, Clara ^{[1
]}

Guo, Ruixia ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Lehner, Flavio ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China

[3] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2017年 / 44卷 / 15期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

DECADAL MODULATION; CIRCULATION; ACCELERATION; SLOWDOWN; IMPACT; ENSO;

D O I：

10.1002/2017GL074273

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10-member initial-condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.

引用

页码：7945 / 7954

页数：10

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