Dynamic Analysis of the Urban-based Low-Carbon Policy using System Dynamics: Focused on Housing and Green Space

To systematically manage the energy consumption of existing buildings, the government has to enforce greenhouse gas reduction policies. However, most of the policies are not properly executed because they do not consider various factors from the urban level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to conduct a dynamic analysis of an urban-based low-carbon policy using system dynamics, with a specific focus on housing and green space. This study was conducted in the following steps: (i) establishing the variables of urban-based greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions; (ii) creating a stock/flow diagram of urban-based GHGs emissions; (iii) conducting an information analysis using the system dynamics; and (iv) proposing the urban-based low-carbon policy. If a combined energy policy that uses the housing sector (30%) and the green space sector (30%) at the same time is implemented, 2020 CO2 emissions will be 7.23 million tons (i.e., 30.48% below 2020 business-as-usual), achieving the national carbon emissions reduction target (26.9%). The results of this study could contribute to managing and improving the fundamentals of the urban-based low-carbon policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.