Investigation of human-induced land use dynamics in a representative catchment on the Chota Nagpur Plateau, India: A spatiotemporal application of soil erosion modeling with connectivity index studies

The soil erosion and sediment yield on the Chota Nagpur Plateau, India have been greatly affected over the years by ever increasing anthropogenic influences and associated land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes. This study coupled a CA-Markov model with the Geospatial Interface for Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP) model along with sediment connectivity index (IC) to estimate the decadal-scale soil erosion and sediment yield changes in a representative catchment of Chota Nagpur Plateau for 2001-2040 period. This LULC- Erosion-IC modeling approach in the Konar catchment has revealed (i) concerning patterns of conversions of bare lands and grasslands to agricultural fields and (ii) dominance of the new agricultural lands in the areas with higher connectivity. Results indicated that around 11 % and 13 % of the total catchment area undergoing agriculture will be in the highly erodible and highly connected category respectively by 2040. The corresponding mean erosion rates showed a significant increase for agricultural lands [from 26 to 35 T/Ha/Y], built up areas [from 43 to 48 T/Ha/Y], and bare lands [from 30 to 36 T/Ha/Y] during the time period of 2001 to 2040. The evaluation of mean connectivity values showed future expansions of forests (through agro-forestry, i.e. similar to 2400 ha) with low connectivity by 2040. A strong linkage between increased future sediment yield and changing LULC patterns (around +6 % and +8 % of the built up area and agricultural lands and -5% and -9% of bare lands and grasslands respectively) can be observed by 2040. These changes are directly attributed to the sediment yield in the region with approximately 59 % and 97 % increase during 2001-2020 and 2020-2040 periods respectively. This study provided a good understanding of general trends in erosion and sediment yield in the Chota Nagpur Plateau and the influence of ongoing efforts in agro-forestry components and land use change dynamics.