Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

被引：1
作者：
Loibel, Selene [3 ]
Andrade, Marinho G. [4 ]
do Val, Joao B. R. [1 ]
de Freitas, Alfredo R. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Estadual Campinas, Fac Engn Eletr & Computacao, Dept Telemat, BR-13083852 Campinas, SP, Brazil
[2] EMBRAPA Pecuaria Sudeste, BR-13560970 Sao Carlos, SP, Brazil
[3] Univ Estadual Paulista, Inst Geociencias & Ciencias Exatas, Dept Estat Matemat Aplicada & Computacao, BR-13000900 Rio Claro, SP, Brazil
[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Ciencias Matemat & Computacao, Dept Matemat Aplicada & Estat, BR-13560970 Sao Carlos, SP, Brazil
来源：
ANAIS DA ACADEMIA BRASILEIRA DE CIENCIAS | 2010年 / 82卷 / 04期
基金：
巴西圣保罗研究基金会;
关键词：
Richards growth model; population risk; harvested populations; parametric estimate; likelihood profile function; DENSITY-DEPENDENCE; TIME; EXTINCTION; DYNAMICS; FISH;
D O I：
10.1590/S0001-37652010000400028
中图分类号：
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号：
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要：
In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.
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页码：1107 / 1126
页数：20
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