Is the slope of the Phillips curve time-varying? Evidence from unobserved components models

被引：9

作者：

Fu, Bowen ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Technol Sydney, Econ Discipline Grp, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia

来源：

ECONOMIC MODELLING | 2020年 / 88卷

关键词：

Bayesian estimation; The slope of the Phillips curve; Unobserved components model; TREND INFLATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.econmod.2019.09.045

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper formally tests for time variation in the slope of the Phillips curve using a variety of measures of inflation expectations and real economic slack. We find that time variation in the slope of the Phillips curve depends on the measure of inflation expectations rather than the measure of real economic slack. We find strong evidence in support of the time-varying slopes of the Phillips curve with different measures of inflation expectations. Thus, we conclude that the slope of the Phillips curve is time-varying.

引用

页码：320 / 340

页数：21

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