Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits

被引：2054

作者：

Springmann, Marco ^{[1
,2
]}

Clark, Michael ^{[3
]}

Mason-D'Croz, Daniel ^{[4
,5
]}

Wiebe, Keith ^{[4
]}

Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon ^{[6
]}

Lassaletta, Luis ^{[7
]}

de Vries, Wim ^{[8
]}

Vermeulen, Sonja J. ^{[9
,10
]}

Herrero, Mario ^{[5
]}

Carlson, Kimberly M. ^{[11
,12
]}

Jonell, Malin ^{[13
]}

Troell, Max ^{[13
]}

DeClerck, Fabrice ^{[14
,15
]}

Gordon, Line J. ^{[13
]}

Zurayk, Rami ^{[16
]}

Scarborough, Peter ^{[2
]}

Rayner, Mike ^{[2
]}

Loken, Brent ^{[13
,14
]}

Fanzo, Jess ^{[17
,18
]}

Godfray, H. Charles J. ^{[1
,19
]}

Tilman, David ^{[20
,21
]}

Rockstrom, Johan ^{[6
]}

Willett, Walter ^{[22
,23
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Oxford Martin Sch, Oxford Martin Programme Future Food, Oxford, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Populat Hlth, Ctr Populat Approaches Noncommunicable Dis Preven, Oxford, England

[3] Univ Minnesota, Nat Resources Sci & Management, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[4] IFPRI, Environm & Prod Technol Div, Washington, DC USA

[5] Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org, CSIRO Agr & Food, St Lucia, Qld, Australia

[6] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[7] Univ Politecn Madrid, CEIGRAM Agr Prod, Madrid, Spain

[8] Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands

[9] WWF Int, Gland, Switzerland

[10] Hoffmann Ctr Sustainable Resource Econ, Chatham House, London, England

[11] Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Management, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[12] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Stockholm, Sweden

[13] Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden

[14] EAT, Oslo, Norway

[15] Biovers Int, Agr Biodivers & Ecosyst Serv, Rome, Italy

[16] Amer Univ Beirut, Fac Agr & Food Sci, Dept Landscape Design & Ecosyst Managem, Beirut, Lebanon

[17] Johns Hopkins Univ, Berman Inst Bioeth, Nitze Sch Adv Int Studies SAIS, Baltimore, MD USA

[18] Johns Hopkins Univ, Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD USA

[19] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[20] Univ Minnesota, Dept Ecol Evolut & Behav, St Paul, MN 55108 USA

[21] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[22] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Boston, MA USA

[23] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Boston, MA USA

来源：

NATURE | 2018年 / 562卷 / 7728期

基金：

美国食品与农业研究所; 欧盟地平线“2020”; 英国惠康基金;

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; PLANETARY BOUNDARIES; LAND-USE; DIET; BIODIVERSITY; AGRICULTURE; PHOSPHORUS; NITROGEN; CONSEQUENCES; EMISSIONS;

D O I：

10.1038/s41586-018-0594-0

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The food system is a major driver of climate change, changes in land use, depletion of freshwater resources, and pollution of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems through excessive nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Here we show that between 2010 and 2050, as a result of expected changes in population and income levels, the environmental effects of the food system could increase by 50-90% in the absence of technological changes and dedicated mitigation measures, reaching levels that are beyond the planetary boundaries that define a safe operating space for humanity. We analyse several options for reducing the environmental effects of the food system, including dietary changes towards healthier, more plant-based diets, improvements in technologies and management, and reductions in food loss and waste. We find that no single measure is enough to keep these effects within all planetary boundaries simultaneously, and that a synergistic combination of measures will be needed to sufficiently mitigate the projected increase in environmental pressures.

引用

页码：519 / +

页数：19

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