Prostate specific antigen density versus prostate specific antigen slope as predictors of prostate cancer in men with initially negative prostatic biopsies

Purpose: We determined if prostate specific antigen (PSA) density and PSA slope alone or in combination could be used to predict which men with persistently elevated serum PSA and prior negative prostate biopsies will have prostate cancer on repeat evaluation. Materials and Methods: In our PSA-1 data base we identified 327 men 50 years old or older with an initially negative prostate biopsy who had persistent PSA elevation, and compared those who did and did not have prostate cancer on subsequent serial prostatic biopsy. Results: Of 70 men with a PSA density of 0.15 or more and PSA slope of 0.75 ng./ml. or more annually compared to 83 with a PSA density of less than 0.15 and PSA slope of less than 0.75 ng./ml. annually 32 (46%) and only 11 (13%), respectively, had prostate cancer on subsequent prostate biopsies (p < 0.0001). In a hierarchical logistic regression analysis PSA density and PSA slope were predictive of prostate cancer on subsequent biopsy (p = 0.001 and 0.03, respectively). PSA density of 0.15 or more alone or PSA slope of 0.75 ng./ml. or more annually alone as the indicator for repeat biopsy would have missed 35 and 40% of cancers, respectively. Conclusions: In men with persistently elevated serum PSA after an initially negative prostate biopsy, PSA density and PSA slope alone or in combination provide useful predictive information about the results of repeat prostate biopsies. However, these parameters are not sufficiently sensitive to identify all patients with detectable prostate cancer.