Demographic transition, human capital and economic growth in China

被引:21
作者
Bairoliya, Neha [1 ]
Miller, Ray [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Southern Calif, Marshall Sch Business, 701 Exposit Blvd,Ste 231, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA
[2] Colorado State Univ, Clark C320, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
基金
美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词
China; Health; Aging; Fertility; Human capital; LOW FERTILITY; RETURNS; EXPENDITURE; EDUCATION; WORLD;
D O I
10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104117
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short run. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页数:31
相关论文
共 54 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2004, Educ Econ, DOI [10.1080/0964529042000239140, DOI 10.1080/0964529042000239140]
[2]  
[Anonymous], 2015, RAPID AGING PENSION
[3]  
[Anonymous], 2010, OECD Economic Surveys: China 2010
[4]   Social insurance, demographics, and rural-urban migration in China [J].
Bairoliya, Neha ;
Miller, Ray .
REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS, 2021, 91
[5]  
Banerjee Abhijit., 2010, LIFE CYCLE MODEL HOU
[6]  
Banerjee Abhijit., 2014, Aggregate Fertility and Household Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis using Micro Data, DOI [10.3386/w20050w20050
[7]  
p.w20050, DOI 10.3386/W20050W20050
[8]  
P.W20050]
[9]  
Banister Judith., 2010, The Chinese economy: A new transition, P114
[10]   A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950-2010 [J].
Barro, Robert J. ;
Lee, Jong Wha .
JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, 2013, 104 :184-198