Clinico-biological markers for the prognosis of status epilepticus in adults

Prediction of mortality, functional outcome and recovery after status epilepticus (SE) is a challenge. Biological and clinical markers have been proposed to reflect the brain injury or to monitor critical ill patients' severity. The aim of this study was to characterize short-term and long-term prognostic factors for SE patients hospitalized in intensive care unit. Patient's outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale at discharge and after 6-12 months. We first assessed the univariate prognosis significance of 51 clinical, demographic or biochemical markers. Next, we built multivariate clinico-biological models by combining most important factors. Statistical models' performances were compared to those of two previous published scales STESS and mSTESS. Eighty-one patients were enrolled. Thirty-five patients showed a steady state while 46 patients clinically worsened at discharge: 14 died, 14 had persistent disability at 6-12 months and 18 recovered. Logistic regression analysis revealed that clinical markers (SE refractoriness, SE duration, de novo SE) were significant independent predictors of worsening while lipids markers and progranulin better predicted mortality. The association of clinico-biological variables allowed to accurately predict worsening at discharge (AUC > 0.72), mortality at discharge (AUC 0.83) and recovery at long-term (AUC 0.89). Previous scales provided lower prediction for worsening (AUC 0.63, STESS; 0.53, mSTESS) and mortality (AUC 0.56, STESS; 0.62, mSTESS) (p < 0.001). We proposed new clinico-biological models with a strong discrimination power for prediction of short- and long-term outcome of hospitalized status epilepticus patients. Their implementation in electronic devices may enhance their clinical liability.