Ten year age- and sex-specific temporal trends in incidence and prevalence of heart failure in Vastra Gotaland, Sweden

Aim Heart failure (HF) is predominantly a disorder of the elderly. During the last decades, cardiovascular primary and secondary prevention and life expectancy have improved. Accordingly, trends in incidence and prevalence of HF are dynamic and may differ over time by age and gender. We aim to investigate the overall and age-specific and sex-specific trends, in incidence, prevalence, and the proportion with co-morbidities of HF over a 10 year period in Region Vastra Gotaland, Sweden. Methods and results The VEGA database is an administrative database of all patients managed in hospital and/or in primary care (private and public) living in Region Vastra Gotaland. All patients with a main or contributory diagnosis of HF (I50) aged 18 years or older between 2008 and 2017 were included. Incidence and prevalence of HF were calculated based on the entire adult population of Region Vastra Gotaland. The adult population in Region Vastra Gotaland increased by 8% from 2008 (n = 1 234 609) to 2017 (n = 1 338 906). Half the population was female and 69% < 60 years of age, both constant over time. In total, 62 228 incident cases of HF were identified. In 2008, we identified 6464 cases, mean age 78.7 (11.5) years, and 49.8% (n = 3222) men, while in 2017, 5727 cases were identified, mean age 78.3 (11.8) years, and 52.5% (n = 3006) men. The overall yearly incidence rate of HF decreased by 3%, RR 0.97 (95% CI 0.96-0.97) per year, P < 0.0001, mainly driven by the age categories >75 years. A constantly higher incidence of HF was seen for men compared with women in all age categories, RR 1.46 (95% CI 1.44-1.49), P < 0.0001. During the same period, we observed a steady increase in overall prevalence from 1.8% for women and 2.0% for men in 2008, to 2.4% in women and 2.8% in men in 2017, particularly in those >85 years of age who had a prevalence of 16.5% (men) and 14.6% (women) in 2008 and 23.5% (men) and 21.5% (women) in 2017. The overall 1 year mortality rate was 22.7%. When adjusted for age, women had a lower risk for death by 13% compared with men [hazard ratio 0.87 (95% CI 0.84-0.90, P < 0.0001)]. Conclusion We saw a decrease in overall incidence, but incidence of HF remains high, particularly in the oldest age groups. Prevalence of HF keeps increasing particularly in those aged >85 years. Our findings emphasize the need for implementation of effective preventive strategies for HF.