The Impact of Sea Level Rise Due to Global Warming on the Coastal Population Dynamics: A Modeling Study

Global warming and the associated sea level rise is a major environmental issue at present time. The sea level rise is expected to change the demography of the coastal areas due to submergence of land area and thereby cause the migration of population to the inland areas. This paper presents a mathematical model to investigate the effect of global warming and the associated sea level rise on the dynamics of the coastal population. The proposed model is comprised of a set of differential equations which capture the dynamical relationship between seven variables, namely the mass of melting polar ice sheets and glaciers, the seawater level, the land area submerged due to increase in seawater level, the densities of the non-coastal and coastal populations, the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and the average surface temperature. The model is analyzed qualitatively to study the long-term behavior of the variables of the system. The sufficient conditions under which surface temperature, seawater level, and other model variables settle to the equilibrium levels are derived. The time evolution of surface temperature, seawater level, and coastal population is shown in different carbon dioxide emission scenarios. The sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the effect of perturbations in the key parameters on the dynamics of the state variables. It is found that the changes in the parameters defining the emission and removal rates of CO2, and the declination rate of carrying capacity of the coastal population due to an increase in submerged area, significantly influence the coastal population dynamics. The study suggests that the policies aiming to limit the impact of sea level rise on coastal population must focus on mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions.