The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020

被引：266
|
作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi [1 ,2 ]
Jung, Sung-mok [1 ]
Linton, Natalie M. [1 ]
Kinoshita, Ryo [1 ]
Yang, Yichi [1 ]
Hayashi, Katsuma [1 ]
Kobayashi, Tetsuro [1 ]
Yuan, Baoyin [1 ]
Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Hokkaido Univ, Grad Sch Med, Kita Ku, Kita 15 Jo Nishi 7 Chome, Sapporo, Hokkaido 0608638, Japan
[2] Japan Sci & Technol Agcy, CREST, Honcho 4-1-8, Kawaguchi, Saitama 3320012, Japan
来源：
JOURNAL OF CLINICAL MEDICINE | 2020年 / 9卷 / 02期
基金：
日本学术振兴会; 日本科学技术振兴机构;
关键词：
epidemiology; foreigner; travel; migration; importation; emerging infectious diseases;
D O I：
10.3390/jcm9020330
中图分类号：
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号：
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要：
A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.
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页数：5
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