On the forecasting of mortality reduction factors

Ways in which the so-called Lee-Carter time series approach to forecasting mortality patterns can be modified to forecast the possible future behaviour of mortality reduction factors (RFs) are described. A comparison is drawn with an alternative regression type approach to the forecasting of mortality RFs, based on the same model structure. Case studies, illustrating different aspects of the methodology, making use of both the more recent mortality experience of UK male pensioner lives and the historical mortality experience of UK male annuitants, are presented. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.