Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Total Factor Productivity in Logistics Industry of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

The logistics industry plays a great role in the sustainable economic development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB). This paper measures the total factor productivity (TFP) of the logistics industry by using the DEA-Malmquist index method and analyzes its spatial-temporal evolution characteristics based on panel data of 11 provinces and cities in the YREB in 2003-2017. Lastly, a spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted in conjunction with the exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) model. The results show that the overall development of the logistics industry has been relatively good, with an inverted "N" shape trend over the years. Technological progress is the main reason for the growth of TFP. From a regional perspective, it shows a spatial distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west, with an overall upward trend of TFP levels. The spatial correlation between the TFP levels of logistics in each province and city is gradually increasing, but coordinated development between regions is still limited. Finally, according to the conclusions, policy recommendations are proposed to accelerate the coordinated development of regional logistics and the innovative development of the modern logistics industry.