Semi-Markov Model for the Oxidation Degradation Mechanism in Gas Turbine Nozzles

This paper presents the statistical characterization of the oxidation degradation mechanism affecting the nozzles of turbines operated in Oil&Gas utilities. The degradation mechanism is modeled as a four-state, continuous-time semi-Markov process with Weibull distributed transition times. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to infer the parameters of the model from an available set of field data, whereas a numerical approach to estimate the Fisher information matrix is used to characterize the uncertainty in the estimates. The estimates obtained are, then, utilized to compute the probabilities of occupying the four degradation states over time and the corresponding uncertainties. A case study is shown, dealing with real field data.