Dilemmas of modelling and decision-making in environmental research

被引：23

作者：

Allison, Andrew E. F. ^{[1
,2
]}

Dickson, Mark E. ^{[1
]}

Fisher, Karen T. ^{[1
]}

Thrush, Simon F. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Auckland, Sch Environm, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand

[2] Univ Auckland, Inst Marine Sci, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1142, New Zealand

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE | 2018年 / 99卷

关键词：

Wicked problems; Agent-based modelling; Post-normal science; Social-ecological systems; Shallow coastal systems; SEA-LEVEL RISE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; COASTAL VULNERABILITY; MANAGEMENT; SYSTEMS; SCIENCE; PERSPECTIVE; UNCERTAINTY; STAKEHOLDER; RESILIENCE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envsoft.2017.09.015

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

Multiple dilemmas confound social-ecological modelling. This review paper focuses on two: a modeller's dilemma associated with determining appropriate levels of model simplification, and a dilemma of decision-making relating to the use of models that were never designed to predict. We analyse approaches for addressing these dilemmas as they relate to shallow coastal systems and conclude that wicked problems cannot be adequately addressed using traditional disciplinary or systems engineering modelling. Simplified inter-and trans-disciplinary models have the potential to identify directions of system change, challenge thinking in disciplinary silos, and ultimately confront the dilemmas of social-ecological modelling. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：147 / 155

页数：9

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