Assessing the Techno-Economics and Environmental Attributes of Utility-Scale PV with Battery Energy Storage Systems (PVS) Compared to Conventional Gas Peakers for Providing Firm Capacity in California

The United States needs to add at least 20 GW of peaking capacity to its grid over the next 10 years, led by large-scale projects in California, Texas and Arizona. Of that, about 60% must be installed between 2023 and 2027, meaning that the energy storage industry has more time to build an economic advantage by lowering costs and improving performance to compete with conventional gas peakers. In this paper, we assess the technical feasibility of utility-scale PV plus battery energy storage (PVS) to provide high capacity factors during summer peak demand periods using a target period capacity factor (TPCF) framework as an alternative to natural gas peakers. Also, a new metric called "Lifetime Cost of Operation" (LCOO) is introduced to provide a metric, focusing on the raw installation and operational costs of PVS technology compared to natural-gas fired peaker plants (simple cycle or conventional combustion turbine) during the target period window. The target period window is the time period during which it is valuable for power plants to provide firm capacity usually during early or late evening peak demand periods in the summer months (from April to September); a framework for which is increasingly being asked for by utilities in recent request for proposals (RFPs). A 50 MWAC PV system with 60 MW/240 MWh battery storage modelled in California can provide >98% capacity factor over a 7-10 p.m. target period with lower LCOO than a conventional combustion turbine natural gas power plant.