A Comprehensive Model for Wind Power Forecast Error and its Application in Economic Analysis of Energy Storage Systems

The unavoidable forecast error of wind power is one of the biggest obstacles for wind farms to participate in day-ahead electricity market. To mitigate the deviation from forecast, installation of energy storage system (ESS) is considered. An accurate model of wind power forecast error is fundamental for ESS sizing. However, previous study shows that the error distribution has variable kurtosis and fat tails, and insufficient measurement data of wind farms would add to the difficulty of modeling. This paper presents a comprehensive way that makes the use of mixed skewness model (MSM) and copula theory to give a better approximation for the distribution of forecast error, and it remains valid even if the dataset is not so well documented. The model is then used to optimize the ESS power and capacity aiming to pay the minimal extra cost. Results show the effectiveness of the new model for finding the optimal size of ESS and increasing the economic benefit.