The fall in incidence of prostate carcinoma - On the down side of a prostate specific antigen induced peak in incidence - Data from the Utah cancer registry

BACKGROUND. In the 1980s, prostate specific antigen (PSA) came into wide use as a prostate carcinoma screening and detection method in the United States. Following the introduction of PSA, the age-adjusted incidence of prostate carcinoma reported by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in the United States rose rapidly (from 84.4/100,000 in 1984 to 163/100,000 in 1991). When an increase in incidence is observed following the introduction of a screening method, a subsequent decrease in incidence may be expected as prevalent cases are removed from the population (a cull effect). Incidence rates may also fall due to factors such as decreased intensity of screening. The Utah Cancer Registry data were examined for a decrease in prostate cancer incidence. METHODS. We tracked age-adjusted prostate carcinoma incidence trends from the population-based Utah Cancer Registry and compared them with rates from the SEER national registry. RESULTS. A rapid and highly correlated rise in prostate carcinoma incidence has been observed in both SEER and Utah incidence rates between 1988 and 1991, the last year for which SEER data are available. In 1992, Utah incidence rates peaked at 236.2 per 100,000. In 1993 and 1994, Utah incidence rates fell to 195.0, and an estimated 164.0 per 100,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS. Population-based data from the Utah Cancer Registry indicates that the incidence of prostate carcinoma is decreasing rapidly after a similarly rapid increase. (C) 1996 American Cancer Society.