Projecting terrestrial biodiversity intactness with GLOBIO 4

被引:116
作者
Schipper, Aafke M. [1 ,2 ]
Hilbers, Jelle P. [1 ]
Meijer, Johan R. [1 ]
Antao, Laura H. [3 ,4 ]
Benitez-Lopez, Ana [2 ,5 ]
de Jonge, Melinda M. J. [2 ]
Leemans, Luuk H. [2 ]
Scheper, Eddy [6 ]
Alkemade, Rob [1 ,7 ]
Doelman, Jonathan C. [1 ]
Mylius, Sido [1 ]
Stehfest, Elke [1 ]
van Vuuren, Detlef P. [1 ,8 ]
van Zeist, Willem-Jan [1 ]
Huijbregts, Mark A. J. [2 ]
机构
[1] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, The Hague, Netherlands
[2] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Inst Water & Wetland Res, Dept Environm Sci, Nijmegen, Netherlands
[3] Univ St Andrews, Ctr Biol Diversity, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
[4] Univ Helsinki, Organismal & Evolutionary Biol Res Programme, Res Ctr Ecol Change, Helsinki, Finland
[5] CSIC, EBD, Integrat Ecol Grp, Seville, Spain
[6] ARIS, Utrecht, Netherlands
[7] Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Analyses Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands
[8] Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands
基金
欧盟地平线“2020”; 欧洲研究理事会;
关键词
anthropocene; biodiversity scenarios; global environmental change; land-use downscaling; mean species abundance; LAND-USE CHANGE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; SCENARIOS; DIVERSITY; IMPACTS; CONSERVATION; PATHWAYS; MODEL; EXPANSION; COUNTRIES;
D O I
10.1111/gcb.14848
中图分类号
X176 [生物多样性保护];
学科分类号
090705 ;
摘要
Scenario-based biodiversity modelling is a powerful approach to evaluate how possible future socio-economic developments may affect biodiversity. Here, we evaluated the changes in terrestrial biodiversity intactness, expressed by the mean species abundance (MSA) metric, resulting from three of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) combined with different levels of climate change (according to representative concentration pathways [RCPs]): a future oriented towards sustainability (SSP1xRCP2.6), a future determined by a politically divided world (SSP3xRCP6.0) and a future with continued global dependency on fossil fuels (SSP5xRCP8.5). To this end, we first updated the GLOBIO model, which now runs at a spatial resolution of 10 arc-seconds (~300 m), contains new modules for downscaling land use and for quantifying impacts of hunting in the tropics, and updated modules to quantify impacts of climate change, land use, habitat fragmentation and nitrogen pollution. We then used the updated model to project terrestrial biodiversity intactness from 2015 to 2050 as a function of land use and climate changes corresponding with the selected scenarios. We estimated a global area-weighted mean MSA of 0.56 for 2015. Biodiversity intactness declined in all three scenarios, yet the decline was smaller in the sustainability scenario (-0.02) than the regional rivalry and fossil-fuelled development scenarios (-0.06 and -0.05 respectively). We further found considerable variation in projected biodiversity change among different world regions, with large future losses particularly for sub-Saharan Africa. In some scenario-region combinations, we projected future biodiversity recovery due to reduced demands for agricultural land, yet this recovery was counteracted by increased impacts of other pressures (notably climate change and road disturbance). Effective measures to halt or reverse the decline of terrestrial biodiversity should not only reduce land demand (e.g. by increasing agricultural productivity and dietary changes) but also focus on reducing or mitigating the impacts of other pressures.
引用
收藏
页码:760 / 771
页数:12
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