100 years of lake evolution over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Lakes can be effective indicators of climate change, and this is especially so for the lakes over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), the highest plateau in the world, which undergoes little direct human influence. The QTP has warmed at twice the mean global rate, and the lakes there respond rapidly to climate and cryosphere changes. The QTP has similar to 1200 lakes larger than 1 km(2) with a total area of similar to 46 000 km(2), accounting for approximately half the number and area of lakes in China. The lakes over the QTP have been selected as an essential example for global lakes or water body studies. However, concerning lake data over the QTP are limited to the Landsat era and/or available at sparse intervals. Here, we extend the record to provide comprehensive lake evolution data sets covering the past 100 years (from 1920 to 2020). Lake mapping in 1920 was derived from an early map of the Republic of China and in 1960 from the topographic map of China. The densest lake inventories produced so far between 1970 and 2020 (covering all lakes larger than 1 km(2) in 14 epochs) are mapped from Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI images. The lake evolution shows remarkable transitions between four phases: significant shrinkage in 1920-1995, rapid linear increase in 1995-2010, relative stability in 2010-2015, and further increase in 2015-2020. The spatial pattern indicates that the majority of lakes shrank in 1920-1995 and expanded in 1995-2020, with a dominant enlargement for central-north lakes in contrast to contraction for southern lakes in 1976-2020. The time series of precipitation between 1920 and 2017 indirectly supports the evolution trends of lakes identified in this study.