Cohort study on the prognosis of acute cerebral infarction in different circulatory systems at 1-year follow-up

Background To evaluate the prognosis of acute cerebral infarction at 1-year follow-up in different circulation infarctions. Methods Clinical data of 858 consecutive patients with acute cerebral infarction were collected. Of the 858 cases, 21 (2.45%) were lost to follow-up and 837 completed follow-up and thus were enrolled in this study. At 1-year follow-up, death or moderate-to-severe dysfunction (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) >= 3 points) was regarded as the poor prognostic endpoint. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic stepwise regression analysis were performed to assess the prognosis. The prediction probability of indicators was obtained for the multivariate model, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was delineated to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) to predict the fitness of the model. Results The older the age, the greater the probability of a poor prognosis. Patients with previous diabetes and cerebral infarction had a poor prognosis. The higher the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and mRS scores and the lower the Barthel index at admission, the worse the prognosis of the patients. The longer the hospital stay, the worse the prognosis of the patients. The prognosis of different circulation infarctions was different. The AUC of the multivariate model was AUC = 0.893, and the 95% confidence interval was 0.870-0.913, indicating a good fit. The prognosis of anterior circulation infarction (ACI) was worse than that of posterior circulation infarction (PCI) (P < 0.05). The prognosis of patients with ACI and PCI was not significantly different from that of patients with ACI or PCI alone (P > 0.05). Conclusions Diabetes, the Barthel index at admission and previous cerebral infarction are poor prognostic factors of acute cerebral infarction. The prognosis of ACI is worse than that of PCI. Different factors affect the prognosis of different circulatory system infarctions.