On the prediction of El Nino 2002 based on the peak of sunspot number in 2000

被引：0

作者：

Kunjaya, C ^{[1
]}

Radiman, I ^{[1
]}

Dupe, Z ^{[1
]}

Herdiwidjaja, D ^{[1
]}

Hakim, MI ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] ITB, Dept Astron, Bandung, Indonesia

来源：

SOLAR VARIABILITY AS AN INPUT TO THE EARTH'S ENVIRONMENT | 2003年 / 535卷

关键词：

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

The possible correlation between sunspot number and El Nino / La Nina was investigated. The SOI data was used and selected according to El Nino / La Nina criteria Calculation was done for several length of delay in the selected SOI data. Using 50 years data, the strongest anti correlation, with coefficient -0.26, occur at 27-month delay. The delay and the peak of sunspot number in 2000 were used to predict the appearance of El Nino phenomena in 2002. The accuracy of the prediction was quite good. When historic data before 1950 was included, the strongest anti correlation coefficient is -0,192 at 34-month delay, whereas using the last 30 years of data, it becomes -0,389 at 34-month delay. Parabolic fitting conclude that 31 month is the most probable delay. All of the results suggest that El Nino cannot be totally independent on solar activities. These results provide an additional hope for El Nino prediction long before it happen.

引用

页码：367 / 370

页数：4