The novel H1N1 Influenza A global airline transmission and early warning without travel containments

被引：25

作者：

Chang ChaoYi ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Cao ChunXiang ^{[1
,2
]}

Wang Qiao ^{[4
]}

Chen Yu ^{[6
,7
]}

Cao ZhiDong ^{[5
]}

Zhang Hao ^{[1
,2
]}

Dong Lei ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Zhao Jian ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Xu Min ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Gao MengXu ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Zhong ShaoBo ^{[1
,2
]}

He QiSheng ^{[1
,2
,7
]}

Wang JinFeng ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Li XiaoWen ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Jointly Sponsored Inst Remote Sensing Applicat, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Normal Univ, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[3] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[4] Satellite Environm Ctr, Minist Environm Protect, Beijing 100012, Peoples R China

[5] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Automat, Key Lab Complex Syst & Intelligence Sci, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Earth Observat & Digital Earth, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[7] Chinese Acad Sci, Grad Univ, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China

来源：

CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN | 2010年 / 55卷 / 26期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

H1N1 influenza A; airline transmission; early warning; basic reproductive number; containment strategies;

D O I：

10.1007/s11434-010-3180-x

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

A novel influenza A (H1N1) has been spreading worldwide. Early studies implied that international air travels might be key cause of a severe potential pandemic without appropriate containments. In this study, early outbreaks in Mexico and some cities of United States were used to estimate the preliminary epidemic parameters by applying adjusted SEIR epidemiological model, indicating transmissibility infectivity of the virus. According to the findings, a new spatial allocation model totally based on the real-time airline data was established to assess the potential spreading of H1N1 from Mexico to the world. Our estimates find the basic reproductive number R0 of H1N1 is around 3.4, and the effective reproductive number fall sharply by effective containment strategies. The finding also implies Spain, Canada, France, Panama, Peru are the most possible country to be involved in severe endemic H1N1 spreading.

引用

页码：3030 / 3036

页数：7

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