A Multimodal Risk Network Predicts Executive Function Trajectories in Non-demented Aging

Background: Multiple modalities of Alzheimer's disease (AD) risk factors may operate through interacting networks to predict differential cognitive trajectories in asymptomatic aging. We test such a network in a series of three analytic steps. First, we test independent associations between three risk scores (functional-health, lifestyle-reserve, and a combined multimodal risk score) and cognitive [executive function (EF)] trajectories. Second, we test whether all three associations are moderated by the most penetrant AD genetic risk [Apolipoprotein E (APOE) epsilon 4+ allele]. Third, we test whether a non-APOE AD genetic risk score further moderates these APOE x multimodal risk score associations. Methods: We assembled a longitudinal data set (spanning a 40-year band of aging, 53-95 years) with non-demented older adults (baseline n = 602; Mage = 70.63(8.70) years; 66% female) from the Victoria Longitudinal Study (VLS). The measures included for each modifiable risk score were: (1) functional-health [pulse pressure (PP), grip strength, and body mass index], (2) lifestyle-reserve (physical, social, cognitive-integrative, cognitive-novel activities, and education), and (3) the combination of functional-health and lifestyle-reserve risk scores. Two AD genetic risk markers included (1) APOE and (2) a combined AD-genetic risk score (AD-GRS) comprised of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; Clusterin[rs11136000], Complement receptor 1[rs6656401], Phosphatidylinositol binding clathrin assembly protein[rs3851179]). The analytics included confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), longitudinal invariance testing, and latent growth curve modeling. Structural path analyses were deployed to test and compare prediction models for EF performance and change. Results: First, separate analyses showed that higher functional-health risk scores, lifestyle-reserve risk scores, and the combined score, predicted poorer EF performance and steeper decline. Second, APOE and AD-GRS moderated the association between functional-health risk score and the combined risk score, on EF performance and change. Specifically, only older adults in the APOE epsilon 4- group showed steeper EF decline with high risk scores on both functional-health and combined risk score. Both associations were further magnified for adults with high AD-GRS. Conclusion: The present multimodal AD risk network approach incorporated both modifiable and genetic risk scores to predict EF trajectories. The results add an additional degree of precision to risk profile calculations for asymptomatic aging populations.