Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

被引：114

作者：

Pinho, S. T. R. ^{[1
]}

Ferreira, C. P. ^{[2
]}

Esteva, L. ^{[3
]}

Barreto, F. R. ^{[4
]}

Morato e Silva, V. C. ^{[4
]}

Teixeira, M. G. L. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Fed Bahia, Inst Fis, BR-40210340 Salvador, BA, Brazil

[2] Univ Estadual Paulista, Dept Biostat, Inst Biociencias, BR-18618000 Botucatu, SP, Brazil

[3] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Fac Ciencias, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico

[4] Univ Fed Bahia, Inst Saude Colet, BR-40110040 Salvador, BA, Brazil

来源：

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2010年 / 368卷 / 1933期

基金：

巴西圣保罗研究基金会;

关键词：

dengue modelling; non-linear differential equations; epidemic time series; effective reproductive number; VECTOR-BORNE DISEASES; AEDES-AEGYPTI; TRANSMISSION; BRAZIL; FEVER; TEMPERATURE; OUTBREAK; NUMBERS;

D O I：

10.1098/rsta.2010.0278

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

In this work, we use a mathematical model for dengue transmission with the aim of analysing and comparing two dengue epidemics that occurred in Salvador, Brazil, in 1995-1996 and 2002. Using real data, we obtain the force of infection, L, and the basic reproductive number, R(0), for both epidemics. We also obtain the time evolution of the effective reproduction number, R(t), which results in a very suitable measure to compare the patterns of both epidemics. Based on the analysis of the behaviour of R(0) and R(t) in relation to the adult mosquito control parameter of the model, we show that the control applied only to the adult stage of the mosquito population is not sufficient to stop dengue transmission, emphasizing the importance of applying the control to the aquatic phase of the mosquito.

引用

页码：5679 / 5693

页数：15

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