How the next nuclear arms race will be different from the last one

被引：10

作者：

Zala, Benjamin ^{[1
,2
,3
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,5
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Kennedy Sch, Belfer Ctr, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] Australian Natl Univ, Dept Int Relat, Coral Bell Sch Asia Pacific Affairs, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[3] Univ Leicester, Leicester, Leics, England

[4] Oxford Res Grp, London, England

[5] Chatham House, London, England

来源：

BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS | 2019年 / 75卷 / 01期

关键词：

Nuclear modernization; arms race; deterrence; strategic non-nuclear weapons; ESCALATION; FORCES;

D O I：

10.1080/00963402.2019.1555999

中图分类号：

D81 [国际关系];

学科分类号：

030207 ;

摘要：

All the world's nuclear-armed states (except for North Korea) have begun modernizing and upgrading their arsenals, leading many observers to predict that the world is entering a new nuclear arms race. While that outcome is not yet inevitable, it is likely, and if it happens, the new nuclear arms race will be different and more dangerous than the one we remember. More nuclear-armed countries in total, and three competing great powers rather than two, will make the competition more complex. Meanwhile, new non-nuclear weapon technologies - such as ballistic missile defense, anti-satellite weapons, and precision-strike missile technology - will make nuclear deterrence relationships that were once somewhat stable less so.

引用

页码：36 / 43

页数：8