The role of macroeconomic variables in sovereign risk

We use a dynamic term structure model with default and observable factors to study the interaction between macro variables and the Brazilian sovereign yield curve. We also calculate the default probabilities implied from the estimated model and the impact of macro shocks on those probabilities. Our results indicate that the VIX is the most important macro factor affecting short-term bonds and default probabilities, while the American short-term rate is the most important factor affecting the long-term default probabilities. Regarding the domestic variables, only the slope of the local yield curve presents significant explanatory power for the sovereign rates and default probabilities. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.