Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy

Exceeding planetary boundaries, and especially climate change, requires economies worldwide to decarbonize and to incorporate principles of sustainable development. Transforming a traditional economy into a sustainable bioeconomy by replacing fossil resources through renewable biogenic resources offers a solution to this end. However, seemingly opposing transition perspectives (i.e., technology-based vs. socio-ecological) lead to fragmented efforts, and the exact form of the transition pathway to the goal of a bioeconomy remains unclear. We examine the issue by involving an international expert sample in a Delphi survey and subsequent cross-impact analysis. Based on the experts' views, we present a list of events necessary to achieve the transformation ranked by the experts to reflect their urgency. The cross-impact analysis facilitates combining the eight most urgent events to create an integrated model of the transition to a sustainable bioeconomy. Our findings suggest that, rather than bioeconomy strategies, investment in the relevant sectors currently constitutes the main bottleneck hindering such a transition.