The new geography of Eastern European trade

This paper is meant to answer the question whether the CMEA countries trade flows have been able to catch up with their trade potential. The gravity equations estimated over a panel of 14 years show that there is a room for an increase in trade, which could compensate for the huge regional trade losses. But, if one takes into account the higher than average transportation costs in East Europe, this potential increase may only be reached through the reduction of these transportation costs and through further liberalisation of regional trade flows. How costly has been the disintegration process? The computation of gross trade destruction (GTD) versus trade creation (TC) minus external trade diversion (ETD) in the framework of the Viner model reflects the decreasing costs of the CMEA break-up: a dramatic trade reorientation has taken place, and it is welfare improving.