First-term Attrition of Military Personnel in the Australian Defence Force

Every year the Australian Defence Force (ADF) recruits over 4,900 ab initio sailors, soldiers, airmen and airwomen of whom approximately 31 percent separate prior to completion of an initial obligated period of service. This early separation of personnel, or first-term attrition, can represent a waste of resources and opportunity. Therefore, it follows that an understanding of those pre-enlistment characteristics which may predict first-term attrition will allow the ADF to review recruiting policies with the view to reducing early attrition. A logit regression model was used to analyze the predictors of first-term attrition of 11,372 ab initio sailors, soldiers, airmen and airwomen who enlisted over the period 1 July 2002 to 1 July 2007. The study, the first of its type examining attrition in ADF, found there is evidence that attrition can be predicted by several pre-enlistment characteristics. A low level of education, low aptitude score, and low psychologist interview rating on enlistment all predicted increased odds of first-term attrition compared with those completing 12 years of schooling prior to enlistment or having at least an average aptitude score or psychologist interview rating. There was also evidence that recruits entering combat military occupations had higher odds of first-term attrition than those entering administration or logistics occupations. It is anticipated that future research will focus on specific predictors, expand the variables for analyses and examine attrition over different intervals of time.