Indicators of restoration success in riparian tropical forests using multiple reference ecosystems

Forest restoration by planting trees often accelerates succession, but the trajectories toward reference ecosystems have rarely been evaluated. Using a chronosequence (4-53 years) of 26 riparian forest undergoing restoration in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, we modeled how the variables representing forest structure, tree species richness and composition, and the proportion of plant functional guilds change through time. We also estimated the time required for these variables to reach different types of reference ecosystems: old-growth forest (OGF), degraded forest, and secondary forest. Among the attributes which follow a predictable trajectory over time are: the basal area, canopy cover, density and tree species richness, as well as proportions of shade tolerant and slow growing species or individuals. Most of the variation in density of pteridophythes, lianas, shrubs and phorophythes, proportion of animal-dispersed individuals, rarefied richness and floristic similarity with reference ecosystems remain unexplained. Estimated time to reach the reference ecosystems is, in general, shorter for structural attributes than for species composition or proportion of functional guilds. The length of this time varies among the three types of reference ecosystems for most attributes. For instance, tree species richness and proportion of shade tolerant or slow growing individuals become similar to secondary forests in about 40 years, but is estimated to take 70 years or more to reach the OGF. Of all the variables considered, canopy cover, basal area, density, and richness of the understory-by their ecological relevance and predictability-are recommended as ecological indicators for monitoring tropical forest restoration success.