The Early Warning System and policymaking in the European Union

Does the Early Warning System alert the European Commission about the prospects of passing new policy? We present a model of European Union policymaking in which the Early Warning System plays an important signalling role. In our model, the Commission uses signals from the Early Warning System to update its belief about governments' voting strategies in the Council. The Commission may then anticipate difficult negotiations by withdrawing its proposal early. We find empirical evidence for our theory: (1) reasoned opinions submitted by national parliaments strongly predict opposition from their governments and (2) the Commission is more likely to withdraw proposals that receive reasoned opinions, even in the absence of a yellow card. Our results run counter to the dominant view in the literature that the Early Warning System is not a very relevant aspect of EU decision-making. Instead, reasoned opinions constitute a clear signal that negotiations are more likely to fail.