Response of water budget to recent climatic changes in the source region of the Yellow River

Discharge in the source region of the Yellow River significantly declined after 1990. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) data show that precipitation in this region was low in the 1990s but returned to above normal after 2002; in recent decades there has been rapid warming of surface air, moistening and wind speed decrease. To investigate the influences of recent climatic changes on the water budget, this study simulates the surface water budget at CMA stations within and surrounding the source region during 1960-2006, using an improved land surface model. Results indicate that the spatial pattern of precipitation change is an important factor (except for precipitation amount and intensity) in determining the response of runoff to precipitation changes. Low runoff in the 1990s was consistent with precipitation amount and intensity. The recovery of precipitation after 2002 is mainly from increased precipitation in the dry area of the source region. Evaporation was mainly limited by water availability in this dry area, and thus most of the precipitation increase was evaporated. By contrast, energy availability was a more important influence on evaporation in the wet area. There was more evaporation in the wet area because of rapid warming, although precipitation amount partly decreased and partly increased, contributing to the reduction of runoff after 2002. This control on evaporation and its response, together with the modified spatial pattern of precipitation, produced a water budget unfavorable for runoff generation in the source region during recent years.